Dave Tuley, senior reporter at VSiN.com, is in his third season with the Post’s Bettor’s Guide. His handicapping pieces appear in VSiN’s online magazine, Point Spread Weekly.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS
This is being billed as Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers, but they’re not on the field at the same time. Even though the teams’ defensive stats are eerily similar — Packers allow 328.7 yards and 22.8 points per game while Buccaneers allow 327.9 yards and 22.1 points per game — I trust Brady more against the Packers defense more than Rodgers vs. the Bucs D (see Tampa Bay’s 38-10 rout in Week 6 as proof). I really have this as pick ’em, and though I understand the Packers being a small favorite at home, I don’t buy that they should be getting any added points for home-field advantage. With Brady in Tompa Bay, they don’t have the stigma of a “warm-weather team traveling to the frozen tundra.”
Buffalo Bills (+3) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Some books actually opened with the Bills favored. Most people attributed that to the uncertain status of Patrick Mahomes’ concussion, but many power ratings had moved the Bills ahead of the Chiefs in recent weeks, so having the Bills favored (or to win this matchup) isn’t so farfetched. The Bills actually average more points per game (30.3 points vs. 29.1 points) and both defenses allow 22.3 points per game. Besides, while we expect Mahomes to be cleared to play from concussion protocol, let’s not forget how much he was limping around this past Sunday, so the scrambling part of his game could still be severely limited while Josh Allen should have his full arsenal.
Last Week: 1-1, Browns (W), Rams (L).